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Christopher Laine |
Frontier markets an untapped trove
It’s not hard to see why Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) have been the favorites of emerging market investors for some time now. The economies of these countries, which encompass more than 25% of the world’s landmass and house 40% of its population, have been growing at an impressive clip for the past decade. But the rise of the emerging markets is more than just a BRIC story. Many of the smaller emerging and frontier economies have quietly been making investor-friendly reforms and deserve the attention of international investors.
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Making a case for commodities
the demand for commodities and the overall trend of investor appetite has grown significantly over the past five to 10 years. There are five main reasons behind this demand.
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Finding the lining for your Nest
Last month, after a lengthy consultation period, the Department for Work and Pensions announced the planned charging structure for the National Employment Savings Trust (Nest).
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Emerging markets poised for returns
As we entered the new millennium, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index stood at 489.42.
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Seeing through the doom and gloom
What of the market from here? We think that the kind of stocks held in our portfolio are cheap. But it would be fatuous to expect these stocks to go up while the rest of the market falls. So ideally the value is best realised in a market that is at least stable or, better still, rising.
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Corporates can still offer value in 2010
While virtually all risk assets delivered strong returns in 2009, the recent performance of corporate credit is without any modern precedent. Against a backdrop of an improving global economy, corporate deleveraging and strong investor flows, US dollar-denominated investment grade corporates outperformed similar maturity Treasury bonds by an astonishing 20% over the second and third quarters. At 265 basis points (bps) at the end of October, BBB spreads narrowed by about two-thirds from their peaks.
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US healthcare reform creates discount
While many equity investors were overweight the healthcare sector at the start of 2009, the sector has significantly underperformed the market this year, not least because of the aggressive sector rotation out of defensives that began in March. However, the major driver for underperformance has been the uncertainty created by President Obama’s US healthcare reform plans. The sector is now at a 20% discount to the market, based on forward price/earnings ratios, and is currently the cheapest it has been for at least 30 years.
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Emerging markets – too late to participate?
Emerging markets equities have rallied some 100% in sterling terms from last year’s lows. The quarter ending in September 2009 was the third best quarter for the asset class in eight years. Although valuations are no longer distressed, and discounts to developed markets narrowed, given the far superior economic growth in emerging economies there is still a lot of potential to generate significant returns.
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Property derivatives offer more potential
Commercial property has historically been an asset class without an efficient tool for managing market risk – and arguably one with the greatest need. The illiquid nature of commercial property investments makes it hard to allocate capital when relying solely on trading underlying assets.
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Playing out possible economic scenarios
Sentiment moves markets. That certainly seems to have been the case so far this year. After the dreadful last quarter of 2008, most market participants believed they had seen the worst, only for equities to continue spiralling down until March. Similarly, by May, most assumed that the strong rebound rally had run its course, only to watch the S&P climb its way above 1,000 in August.
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UK equities – where do we go from here?
UK equities have had a strong run since their trough on March 9, thanks to improved investor confidence. The rally was initially led by bombed-out stocks, especially by banks that suffered heavily in the financial crisis and could require further capital injections down the road.
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The re-emergence of emerging markets
In 1820, today’s emerging economies accounted for more than 80% of global GDP. With the onset of the industrial revolution, these inventive and enterprising countries turned inward and ultimately lost their leadership position in the global economy. But in recent times, emerging markets have re-emerged to – from their perspective – regain their rightful place in the economic world. Today, they account for more than 50% of global GDP, up from 38% in 1950.
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Diversification should focus on risk for now
Since the summer of 2007, asset class returns have headed downwards. With the exception of government bonds, no asset class, including alternatives, has protected investors from the credit crisis. For pension funds, it may have seemed that the best place to be would be out of the market entirely.
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Adam Kibble - Commodities portfolio manager at Macquarie Bank |
‘Generation A’ will dictate China’s future
The national bureau of Statistics of China recently released figures that show the country’s GDP growth in the final quarter of 2008 was 6.8% – down from 9% the previous quarter.
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Thomas Thygesen - Chief strategist in SEB X-asset strategies team at SEB Merchant banking |
The worst crisis in a financial century?
There is little doubt that the current economic and market downturn is the worst in decades. It is easy to think that we are moving in uncharted territory as the cliché goes. However, extreme events like these are not all that unusual when you look at very long historical patterns.
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Global macro is gaining momentum
The prospects for the global economy are increasingly bleak. Recent figures suggest the downturn is now synchronised across the globe to a much larger extent than previous recessions. High levels of debt and low savings in key sectors suggest deleveraging has much further to run, while rising unemployment, weak investment and deteriorating consumer and commercial balance sheets look set to remain a feature for some time.
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A simple discussion can do no harm
Sustainability just became more interesting. We’ve heard the word repeatedly from governments over the past few years. What it often refers to is maintaining the status quo or practices that will preserve economic and environmental health. Now it is being linked to ethics in a direct challenge to the pensions industry.
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Eastern promises: opportunity in Japan
The world is entering a possibly lengthy recession and while no country will be immune from the downturn, Japan, having experienced the depths of a deflationary malaise in the 1990s, may well be better positioned to provide opportunities for pension fund investment over the long term, not-withstanding recent yen strength.
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